Tropischer Sturm Emily auf dem Weg nach Bahamas, U.S. Ostküste

Nach den neuesten Vorhersagen des National Hurrican Centers (NHC) wird die Bahn von Emily nun weiter westlich erwartet als noch gestern vorhergesagt wurde. Neu ist auch, dass per Sonntag Vormittag erwartet wird, dass Emily vor der U.S. Küste der beiden Carolinas Hurricane-Stärke erreicht – diese Einschätzung kann sich allerdings noch ändern, sowohl was die Bahn als auch was die Stärke des Tropischen Sturms betrifft.

Vorhergesagte Bahn  und Stärke des Tropischen Sturm Emily - 5 Tage Prognose

Vorhergesagte Bahn und Stärke des Tropischen Sturm Emily - 5 Tage Prognose

In der Karte ist:

D: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH
S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH
H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH
M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH

Die Wahrscheinlichkeiten, mit denen mit Windgeschwindigkeiten von mehr als 39 mph (63 kmh) gerechnet werden muss:

Vorhersage der Wahrscheinlichkeiten mit denen mit Windgeschwindigkeiten von über 39 mph gerechnet werden muss

Vorhersage der Wahrscheinlichkeiten mit denen mit Windgeschwindigkeiten von über 39 mph gerechnet werden muss

Das Public Advisory des NHC August 3, 0600 UTC:

000

WTNT35 KNHC 030535

TCPAT5

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011

200 AM AST WED AUG 03 2011

…EMILY HEADED FOR HISPANIOLA…

SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST…0600 UTC…INFORMATION

———————————————-

LOCATION…16.3N 67.5W

ABOUT 130 MI…210 KM SSW OF PONCE PUERTO RICO

ABOUT 220 MI…355 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

——————–

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…

* PUERTO RICO…VIEQUES AND CULEBRA

* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

* HAITI

* SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…

* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED

STATES…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE

MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE

THE UNITED STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL

METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

——————————

AT 200 AM AST…0600 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS

ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 67.5 WEST.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH…22 KM/H. A

TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED IS

EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE

CENTER OF EMILY WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT

AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON

THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH…85 KM/H…WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES

HISPANIOLA…AND WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE

HIGH TERRAIN OF THAT ISLAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES…195 KM

…MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM HURRICANE HUNTER

OBSERVATIONS IS 1006 MB…29.71 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

———————-

WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT IN PUERTO

RICO…CULEBRA…AND VIEQUES…AND SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI LATER TODAY…AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST

BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS BY THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM

CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT

SEVERAL HOURS.

RAINFALL…EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS

OF 4 TO 6 INCHES IN PUERTO RICO…THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC…AND HAITI

WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS

COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS

OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES

ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS.

STORM SURGE…A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 2 FEET

ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR

THE COAST…THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS

WAVES.

NEXT ADVISORY

————-

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 AM AST.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH

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